Wolfinger (2005): Understanding the Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce

Published: 2005 | Study: Wolfinger, N.H. – Journal of Marriage and Family

Study Description

Wolfinger's 2005 study, published in the Journal of Marriage and Family, explores how parental divorce affects the marital stability of offspring. Drawing on decades of data, it shows that children of divorced parents are significantly more likely to experience divorce themselves, a phenomenon known as "intergenerational transmission." The research highlights how this cycle persists due to learned behaviors like poor conflict resolution, lower commitment expectations, and attachment issues.

Research Findings

For instance, individuals from divorced homes often enter marriages with skepticism about lifelong unions, leading to higher dissolution rates. The study also notes that the effect is stronger when both parents' marriages failed or if stepfamily dynamics were involved, amplifying emotional instability. Overall, it underscores that while not destiny, parental divorce creates a statistical headwind for offspring marriages, with risks elevated by 60–150% depending on the scenario. This work is foundational for understanding family patterns and has influenced countless subsequent research on divorce cycles.

Experimental Setup

Wolfinger analyzed data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) spanning 1973 to 1994, involving over 10,000 U.S. adults. The study used hazard models to track marriage outcomes over time, focusing on the timing and probability of divorce. Participants provided life histories, including parental marital status, own marriages, and divorces. The setup controlled for confounders like age at marriage, education, income, race, and religion to isolate the effect of parental divorce. This longitudinal approach allowed for robust comparisons between individuals from intact and divorced families, with survival analysis revealing how early-life experiences predict adult marital success.

Drawbacks/Limitations on Finding

The study's reliance on self-reported data introduces potential recall bias, where participants might misremember parental events or their own marriage timelines. The data ends in 1994, so it may not fully capture modern trends like increased cohabitation or delayed marriages, potentially overestimating effects in today's cohorts. Sample size is large but skewed toward earlier generations, limiting generalizability to Gen Z or millennials. Additionally, causality is correlational—parental divorce might proxy for unmeasured genetic or environmental factors. Despite these, the controlled models and national representativeness make the findings highly credible.

Calculator Integration

At Odds on Life, we use Wolfinger's findings for the parental divorce factor. The logit is +0.588 for one parent divorced and +0.916 for both, reflecting the study's RR 1.6–2.5. Protective (neither) is -0.511. Remarriage adds +0.405 if yes. This is part of the family instability sub-score, capped at 0.94 to avoid overstatement with overlaps like conflict or adopted status (halved if divorce present).

Study References

Related Factors

This study directly informs the calculator's assessment of:

These factors are combined in a family instability sub-score to prevent double-counting overlapping risks, as Wolfinger's research shows these factors often co-occur and compound each other's effects.

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