Amato (2001): A Meta-Analysis of Parental Divorce and Offspring Marital Stability

Study Description

Paul Amato's 2001 meta-analysis, published in Psychological Bulletin, synthesizes 93 studies on how parental divorce influences children's future marriages. The research confirms that offspring of divorced parents have a 60–150% higher divorce risk, attributed to "transmission mechanisms" like reduced socioeconomic resources, altered attachment styles, and negative views of commitment.

Research Findings

For example, children from divorced homes often develop anxious or avoidant attachments, leading to trust issues in adult relationships. The study also notes that effects are stronger when divorce occurs in childhood and when both parents' marriages fail, creating a cycle of instability. Interestingly, Amato finds that high parental conflict without divorce can be as damaging as divorce itself, suggesting it's the disruption, not just the split, that matters. This work has shaped family psychology, emphasizing early interventions to break the cycle.

Experimental Setup

Amato reviewed 93 peer-reviewed studies from 1980–2000, involving over 100,000 participants across the U.S. and similar countries. He used effect size metrics (Cohen's d) to quantify the impact of parental divorce on offspring divorce rates, converting them to odds ratios. The meta-analysis included longitudinal designs where children were tracked into adulthood, controlling for variables like age, income, education, and race. Statistical techniques like random-effects models accounted for study heterogeneity, ensuring robust averages.

Drawbacks/Limitations on Finding

Meta-analyses like this inherit biases from included studies, such as selection effects (e.g., more troubled families divorce). The data is mostly pre-2000, so it misses recent trends like rising cohabitation rates, which might mitigate effects. Many studies have small samples or short follow-ups, limiting long-term insights. Causality is inferred, not proven—genetic factors or unmeasured traits (e.g., personality) could explain some transmission. Despite these, the large aggregated sample and controlled averages make the conclusions reliable.

Calculator Integration

At Odds on Life, Amato's meta informs the parental divorce logit: +0.588 for one parent and +0.916 for both, matching RR 1.6–2.5. Protective (neither) is -0.511. We merge with conflict (+0.336–0.588) and adopted (+0.262, halved if divorce), capped at 0.94 to balance overlaps while preserving the study's net effects.

Study References

• Amato, P.R. (2001)
  Children of Divorce in the 1990s: An Update of the Amato and Keith (1991) Meta-Analysis – Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 127, No. 2
  Wolfinger (2005) – Journal of Marriage and Family (Related study)

Related Factors

This study directly informs the calculator's assessment of:

• Parental Divorce – Primary factor showing 60–150% increased divorce risk for offspring
• Parental Conflict – Related factor that Amato found can be as damaging as divorce itself
• Adopted or Foster Care Status – Part of the family instability sub-score that interacts with parental divorce

These factors are combined in a family instability sub-score (capped at 0.94) to prevent double-counting overlapping risks, as Amato's meta-analysis shows these factors often co-occur and compound each other's effects. The study's finding that high parental conflict can be as damaging as divorce itself is particularly important for understanding the broader family instability context.