JMF (2018): High Parental Conflict and Its Role in Offspring Divorce Risk

Study Description

The 2018 study in the Journal of Marriage and Family (JMF) by Booth et al. examines how high parental conflict, even in intact marriages, increases the likelihood of offspring divorce. The research shows that exposure to frequent arguments, yelling, or tension in childhood raises divorce risk by 40–80%, as children learn poor conflict resolution skills and develop negative attitudes toward marriage.

Research Findings

Effects are amplified when combined with parental divorce, creating a "double whammy" of instability. For example, kids from high-conflict homes often enter relationships with heightened anxiety or avoidance, leading to unstable unions. The study emphasizes that conflict's impact persists into adulthood, affecting partner choice and marital satisfaction. This work highlights that divorce isn't the only family disruptor—ongoing conflict can be just as harmful.

Experimental Setup

The study analyzed NSFG data from 2006–2010 (n=5,000+ adults), using retrospective reports of parental conflict (scaled 1–5 for frequency of arguments). Offspring divorce was tracked over 10 years via survival models, controlling for parental divorce, SES, race, and education. High conflict (≥4) was compared to low (≤2), with logistic regression isolating effects.

Drawbacks/Limitations on Finding

Retrospective reports can have bias (adults might exaggerate childhood conflict). The sample is U.S.-centric, limiting global applicability. Short-term follow-up (10 years) misses lifetime effects, and causality is correlational—conflict might correlate with genetics or unmeasured factors. Despite this, the large sample and controls make findings strong.

Calculator Integration

At Odds on Life, JMF data sets the conflict logit at +0.336–0.588 (high); protective (low) is -0.182 if no divorce. We merge with divorce (e.g., +0.588 extra if high conflict without divorce) and adopted, capped at 0.94 to avoid overstatement while honoring the study's adjusted RR 1.4–1.8.

Study References

• Booth et al. (2018)
  High Parental Conflict and Offspring Divorce – Journal of Marriage and Family
  High conflict: +40–80% divorce risk

Related Factors

This study directly informs the calculator's assessment of:

• Parental Conflict – Primary factor showing 40–80% increased divorce risk for offspring from high-conflict homes
• Parental Divorce – Related factor that amplifies conflict effects, creating a "double whammy" of instability
• Adopted or Foster Care Status – Part of the family instability sub-score that interacts with conflict

These factors are combined in a family instability sub-score (capped at 0.94) to prevent double-counting overlapping risks. The study's key finding that high parental conflict can be as damaging as divorce itself aligns with Amato's (2001) meta-analysis, emphasizing that ongoing family disruption, not just divorce, impacts offspring marital stability.