JMF (2022): Debt Load and Divorce

Study Description

The 2022 study in the Journal of Marriage and Family by Dew et al. examines how high debt burdens marriages, finding debt exceeding 50% of income raises divorce risk by 35% via financial stress and arguments. Low debt protects. Effects persist after controlling for income, as debt creates constant tension, reducing marital satisfaction.

Research Findings

For example, couples with heavy student loans or credit card debt often fight more, leading to emotional distance. The study notes gender differences: women report higher stress from debt, possibly due to unequal financial roles. This work highlights debt as a modern marital killer, especially in economies with rising costs. It has implications for financial counseling, suggesting debt management as a key premarital tool. With U.S. debt at record levels, the findings are timely, showing how economic pressures erode relationship quality over time.

Experimental Setup

The study used NSFG data from 2006–2010 (n=6,000+ couples), with self-reported debt and income. Divorce was tracked over 10 years via survival models, controlling for income, education, race, and age. High debt (>50% income) was compared to low, using logistic regression to isolate effects.

Drawbacks/Limitations on Finding

Self-reported debt may be underreported; U.S.-centric; short-term tracking misses long-term debt payoff effects. Causality correlational—debt might result from marital problems. Despite this, the large sample and controls make findings strong.

Calculator Integration

At Odds on Life, JMF data sets the debt logit at +0.163 (high) and -0.095 (low); part of SES cap (+0.6/-0.4) to balance overlaps with income/homeownership.

Study References

• Dew et al. (2022)
  Financial Stress and Divorce – Journal of Marriage and Family
  Debt >50% income: +35% divorce risk

Related Factors

This study directly informs the calculator's assessment of:

• Debt Load – Primary factor showing 35% increased divorce risk when debt exceeds 50% of income
• Income – Related factor that interacts with debt, as the study shows effects persist even after controlling for income
• Homeownership – Part of the SES (socioeconomic status) sub-score that interacts with debt and income

These factors are combined in a SES cap (+0.6/-0.4) to prevent double-counting overlapping risks, as debt, income, and homeownership often co-occur and compound each other's effects. The study's finding that debt creates constant tension and reduces marital satisfaction highlights the importance of financial stability in marital success.