CDC NSFG (2023): Prior Marriage and Divorce

Study Description

The 2023 CDC NSFG update analyzes how prior marriages affect divorce rates, finding remarriages have 100–300% higher risk due to baggage like stepkids or trust issues. Second marriages fail at 40% over 10 years (RR 2.0, +100%), third+ at 50–60% (RR 4.0, +300%). Protective (first marriage): RR 0.8 (–20%).

Research Findings

The study notes gender differences: men's remarriages have higher risk. This work updates earlier cycles, showing trends hold despite rising cohabitation. It has policy implications, suggesting premarital counseling for remarriages to address past traumas. With divorce rates stabilizing, the findings emphasize that "practice" doesn't make perfect in marriage—experience often brings complications.

Experimental Setup

NSFG (2015–2019 cycle, n=5,000+), with life histories of marriages. Hazard models tracked 10-year outcomes, controlling for age, SES, race.

Drawbacks/Limitations on Finding

Self-report bias; younger focus; causality correlational. Reliable due to national scale.

Calculator Integration

At Odds on Life, logit +0.693 (2nd), +1.386 (3+); protective -0.182 (first); baggage cap (1.2) with cohab/partners.

Study References

• CDC NSFG (2023)
  Remarriage and Divorce – CDC National Health Statistics Reports
  NSFG Main Page – CDC
  2nd marriage: +100%, 3rd+: +300% divorce risk

Related Factors

This study directly informs the calculator's assessment of:

• Prior Marriage – Primary factor showing dramatically increased divorce risk for second and third+ marriages
• Prior Cohabitation – Related factor that interacts with prior marriage in the "baggage" cap
• Prior Sexual Partners – Part of the relationship history that interacts with prior marriage
• Children from Prior Relationship – Related factor that contributes to the "baggage" of remarriages

These factors are combined in a baggage cap (1.2) to prevent double-counting overlapping risks, as prior marriage, cohabitation, and relationship history often co-occur and compound each other's effects. The study's finding that "practice" doesn't make perfect in marriage highlights how relationship experience can bring complications rather than protection.